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Next UK parliament set to be most diverse, projects think tank
The anticipated rise in diversity in the Commons would still fall short of the 15 percent needed to match the diversity of the electorate.
The upcoming British Parliament is anticipated to be the most diverse to date, according to recent projections by a UK-based think tank.
The report, titled “Diversity in the Next Parliament,” by British Future, a leading race and diversity think tank, indicates that ethnic minority representation in the House of Commons, including individuals of Indian origin, is expected to surge from 10 percent to at least 12 percent after the next General Election.
The forecast suggests, regardless of the political outcome, ethnic diversity is becoming a "new cross-party norm" in British politics. With both the Conservatives and Labour having selected the majority of their candidates for key constituencies, the projection anticipates an increase in the number of Members of Parliament of ethnic minority from 65 to at least 75, possibly even 83, in the next general election.
As per the projections, the upcoming elections will also surpass the record set during the 2019 general elections, where 66 ethnic minority MPs (at least 25% Indian origin) were elected to the Westminster Parliament. In addition, there will be a record number of women elected to the Parliament, especially if the Labour Party gains seats in the elections.
"The next Parliament will be the most diverse ever, reflecting a new norm across political parties,” said Sunder Katwala, director of British Future. “More ethnic minorities and more women are likely to sit in the Commons than ever before. Parliament is gradually catching up with the electorate that it represents. But this needs to accelerate further if it is to keep pace with the growing diversity of our society and close the gender gap.”
However, the anticipated rise in diversity in the Commons would still fall short of the 15 percent needed to match the diversity of the electorate. In this regard, Katwala urged caution, suggesting that political parties might miss an opportunity in 2024.
"In the longer term, Parliament and political parties should collect data on ethnicity and social class, to track representation, identify gaps and ensure all groups are getting a fair chance," he added.
The Labour Party is expected to have the highest number of ethnic minority MPs, with around 55 if the party secures an overall majority, in contrast to approximately 21 for the Conservatives.
Earlier, Rishi Sunak, the first British Prime Minister of Indian origin, suggested that he is contemplating calling for a general election in the second half of the year.
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