Two “friendly” nations promising to “elevate”  their bilateral relationship to a strategic relationship eight years ago, are now locked in an unprecedented acrimonious and “tit for tat”  “strategic” warfare. What has triggered this massive rift? Friends have turned foes and people, especially the immigrants from the sub-continent,  are generally scarred and dumbfounded over the turn of events that started unfolding since the beginning of this month.

There have been similarities that both Canada (2010) and India (2023) played host to the World leadership as a part of the G20 Summits. But the results from the two events, however, have been intriguingly contrary to the expectations. More than the G20 agenda, long time irritants between the two nations with strong people-to-people connections, took the centre stage as two Prime Ministers, instead of a bilateral meeting on the side-lines had a pull aside stand off to reel out their grievances without discussing solutions.

The New Delhi G20 Summit may go down in the annals of the history as one of the most well organised  august gathering since its inception in 1999 but also left behind a bitter taste over the Indo-Canadian stand-off. If one looks at the New Delhi summit, it may have witnessed emergence of India as a new non-aligned centre of  power  or South-South leader but it also witnessed  two nations who wanted to take their bilateral to a new strategic partnership falling apart.

Why and what could be the factors that accelerated deterioration in relations between India and Canada?

It would be  interesting to go through the official statements issued after  Indian Prime Ministers, Dr Manmohan Singh (2010) and Mr Narendra Modi (2015),  visited Canada. While Dr Manmohan Singh was in Canada  to participate in the G20 Summit, Mr Narendra Modi went on a two-day bilateral visit at the invitation of his Canadian counterpart, Mr Stephen Harper. Here are the statements:

 Statement 1: “The Prime Minister of India, Dr Manmohan Singh, visited Canada from June 26 to June 28 at the invitation of the Prime Minister of Canada, Mr. Stephen Harper. During his visit, Prime Minister Singh participated in the G-20 Toronto Summit and held bilateral discussions with Prime Minister Harper.

The two Prime Ministers, In reviewing the state of bilateral relations, welcomed the enhanced interaction in a /broad range of areas, visits and other exchanges between the two countries. They expressed their desire to /broaden and deepen economic, diplomatic, educational, scientific and cultural ties between India and Canada. The two Prime Ministers also solemnly observed the occasion of the 25^th anniversary of the bombing of Air India flight 182 “Kanishka” on June 23, 1985, in which 329 lives were tragically lost. They strongly condemned terrorism in all its forms and manifestations and agreed to direct their respective Governments toward greater cooperation in counter-terrorism and security-related matters. Reiterating the need for intensifying global cooperation in combating international terrorism, they called for an early conclusion and adoption of the Comprehensive Convention on International Terrorism within the UN framework.

Prime Ministers Singh and Harper welcomed the signature of the Agreement for Cooperation in Peaceful Uses of Nuclear Energy, which will help facilitate civil nuclear cooperation between the two countries. They both committed to the ratification of the agreement and the completion of all remaining steps necessary to ensure its early implementation. They underscored the potential for mutually beneficial civil nuclear cooperation and trade.

The two leaders committed to expanding a range of activities and institutional frameworks that will contribute to the shared goal of increasing bilateral trade to $15 billion annually in the next five years. During Prime Minister Harper’s visit to India in November 2009, both countries had signed a Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) to establish a Joint Study Group to explore the possibility of a Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement between India and Canada. The two Prime Ministers welcomed the conclusion of that report, in which the Joint Study Group identified substantial potential economic gains that both countries could achieve through such an agreement. The two Prime Ministers noted that the recommendations in the report will be examined by both countries and necessary processes for obtaining approvals will be initiated immediately and will aim to be completed by the end of October.”

Statement 2:  “Prime Minister Stephen Harper today marked the conclusion of a highly productive visit to Canada by Narendra Modi, Prime Minister of India. The two-day visit, which included stops in Ottawa, Toronto and Vancouver, was Prime Minister Modi’s first visit to Canada since taking office and the first bilateral visit by an Indian Prime Minister since 1973.

During the visit, Prime Minister Harper and Prime Minister Modi committed to elevate the bilateral relationship to a strategic partnership and further broadened its scope through a number of important initiatives.

The leaders also saw the completion of memoranda of understanding in a range of areas, including civil aviation, rail regulation, education and skills development, and space cooperation, and projects focused on maternal, new-born and child health. Canada and India also finalized all steps necessary for the entry-into-force of the Social Security Agreement, which will take place on August 1, 2015.

  Prime Minister Harper also welcomed Prime Minister Modi’s announcement that India will issue visas upon arrival, which will make it easier for Canadians to travel to India.

 On the margins of the visit, several commercial agreements between Canadian and Indian companies were announced. With a combined value of over $1.6 billion, these agreements will benefit a range of sectors, including aerospace and defence, education, energy, mining, infrastructure, sustainable technologies, and information and communications technology. They further demonstrate the significant growth taking place in the Canada-India bilateral commercial relationship. One commercial agreement involving Saskatchewan-based Cameco will see the company supply India with over seven million pounds of uranium over the next five years. This deal was made possible due in part to the Canada-India Nuclear Cooperation Agreement negotiated by our Government.

Prime Minister Harper and Prime Minister Modi welcomed the progress made on negotiating a Bilateral Foreign Investment Promotion and Protection Agreement and agreed to intensify discussions to finalize the outstanding issues. The prime ministers also participated in several cultural events where they met with members of Canada’s vibrant Indo-Canadian community. During these events, Prime Minister Harper paid tribute to the tremendous contributions this community continues to make to our country’s social, cultural and economic landscape.

The leaders issued a joint statement reaffirming and further expanding the scope of the new strategic partnership between Canada and India. Canada and India have long-standing and positive bilateral relations based on shared values of democracy, pluralism and a mutual interest in expanding trade. India is Canada’s largest trading partner in South Asia and is a priority market under Canada’s Global Markets Action Plan.

With bilateral merchandise trade totalling nearly $6.3 billion in 2014 in addition to the over $1.5 billion in bilateral services trade in 2013, a market of more than 1.2 billion people, and a predicted economic growth of 7.5 per cent in 2015, India represents exciting opportunities for Canadian businesses. Canada’s approximately 1.2 million Indian diaspora community is one of the largest Indian diasporas in the world.

Prime Minister Harper first met Prime Minister Modi on the margins of the G-20 Summit in Australia in November 2014. Prime Minister Harper also visited India in November 2012 and November 2009.

This is the first bilateral visit to Canada by an Indian Prime Minister since 1973.

History of Indo-Canadian bilateral relations:

Except for  the tenures of  Jean Chretien and Stephen Harper as  Prime Ministers,  Canada’s bilateral relations with India have hardly been cordial.  The 2015 visit of Narendra Modi  took place when Canada was already in election mode.  Though the relations between India and Canada had already touched a new low, no one expected the showdown to come at  G20 Summit. It has been made to look more coincidental than by design. Signs that soiled relations between Canada and India were heading  for a showdown  was more than evident  when Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, unlike other Western leaders, did not hold formal bilateral talks with Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi. Instead, the two leaders raised serious concerns with each other on the side-lines of the summit, where Modi brought up “continuing anti-India activities of extremist elements in Canada,”  a statement by office of Indian PM said.

The India-Canada ties have generally been  driven by moderate trade, huge Indian investments  and the presence of a large Indian diaspora in Canada.  These factors, however, have been subdued by strong Indian criticism  that Canada has been over sympathetic  towards  a Sikh separatist movement. Canada, on the other hand, has been  accusing Indian officials of interfering in its domestic politics.  Th e “chequered” relationship suffered a devastating blow   when Justin Trudeau announced in  Canadian Parliament that Ottawa was pursuing “credible allegations” from its intelligence against New Delhi for playing a role in the assassination of a prominent Sikh Canadian leader, Hardeep Singh Nijjar, on Canadian soil on June 18.  The announcement followed a tit for tat action by both Canada and Indian government in expelling a senior diplomat each. As if it was not enough, India also announced suspension of visa services from its Canadian missions besides telling  Canada to scale down its diplomatic staff in India.

The warmth and cordiality in bilateral relations had been missing right from the beginning.  Imagine, the first official visit of a Canadian Prime Minister to India came in 1996, exactly 23 years after Indian Prime Minister Indira Gandhi travelled to Canada. It took almost 42 years for the second Indian Prime Minister – Narendra Modi – to come on a bilateral visit in 2015.

A year after visiting Canada, Indira Gandhi wanted to tell the world that India was on the threshold of becoming a nuclear power  with a nuclear explosion in Pokhran that led to an   international backlash.  The then Canadian PM Pierre Trudeau (father of the current PM Justin Trudeau) assailed it as  an act of “betrayal” since the plutonium used was produced by the Canadian aided nuclear reactor CIRUS.

Eight years later in 1982 Indian Government through PM Indira Gandhi raised the issue of Canadian soil being used by Sikh extremists demanding a separate Sikh homeland.  Pierre Trudeau, who was feeling cut up by Indian action in Pokhran,  however, kept quiet.

In 1996,  Jean Chrétien became the first Canadian Prime Minister to visit India. His visit  was viewed  as a diplomatic effort to undo the damage done to the bilateral relations in the immediate past.  He also became the first Prime Minister to visit Golden Temple in Amritsar. He also inaugurated Canada’s Consulate in Chandigarh,  the first foreign mission outside four cities of New Delhi, Mumbai, Kolkata and Chennai.

His visit  raised hopes  of  strengthening  bilateral relations  as back home in Canada, the first ever three members of Indian diaspora – Herb Dhaliwal, Gurbax Singh Malhi and Jag Bhaduria – were chosen on ruling Liberal party ticket to House of Commons.  “Canada is back in India and we are here to stay,” was something Chrétien said often during his visit, for which he brought along eight premiers out of the 10 Canadian provinces and over 300 Canadian business leaders.

But whatever gains were made during this trip, were lost two years later. When India sent for its second nuclear explosion in 1998, Canada was among the first few friendly nations to  slap sanctions on New Delhi. Canada also withdrew its High Commissioner from India. It was during this thaw in bilateral relations that a delegation of the Opposition led by Preston Manning (Reform Party, the forerunner of present Conservatives) visited India and held meetings with the Indian  government. Gurmant Grewal, who was elected to House of Commons from British Columbia on  Reforms (Progressive Alliance), was a part of the delegation. After the first three MPs of Indian origin, Gurmant Grewal,  Deepak Obhrai and Rahim Jaffer  were the next batch of MPs of Indian origin to sit in Canadian Parliament.

Because of these frequent ups and downs, India-Canada bilateral relationship was often described as “chequered”. In 2015, when dispute over “nuclear fuel” was finally settled, the use of Canadian soil by Sikh separatists,  started to define the bilateral relationship.  The June 18 killing of Hardeep Singh Nijjar was the boiling point  that  has rocked the relations. There may be little or some credence to the belief that the statement made by Justin Trudeau in House of Commons was to appease Sikhs who constitute only two percent of the country’s population that crossed 40 million mark a few months ago.