File photo. / Reuters

Washington, United States

Marching bands blared as students and alumni mingled during the homecoming parade at Howard University, the historically Black college in Washington where Kamala Harris graduated four decades ago.

The cutthroat US presidential election is likely to be won on the thinnest of margins, and polls showing gains by Republican Donald Trump among traditionally Democratic Black voters, particularly men, have made headlines.

One recent New York Times/Siena poll that set off alarm bells said Harris has only 78 percent Black support, compared to approximately 90 percent for President Joe Biden when he defeated Trump four years ago.

So, Harris will be counting on the enthusiasm of Black voters at cultural lynchpins like Howard -- one of a network of HBCUs, or historically black colleges and universities, that emerged during the decades of racial segregation and continue to exert powerful influence.

The Democrat may even use Howard's campus as her election night headquarters, according to NBC News.

Certainly, the homecoming festivities last weekend indicated strong support for Howard's most famous living graduate, as vendors sold campaign merchandise and visitors took photos with cutouts of the vice president.

Kacy Haynes, up from Louisiana to visit his son, said he "hadn't really heard a lot of the support" for Trump.

And while the Trump campaign has made inroads into the Black electorate, particularly among men, that support shouldn't be overstated, analysts say.

Michael Strawbridge, assistant professor of political science at Washington University in St. Louis, pointed to research that shows unflagging Black support for the Democratic Party, adding that he didn't think Republicans are "winning over anyone who isn't already on their side."

He also cautioned against polls that sometimes only include small subsets of Black voters.

"The real issue for many Black Americans is not Democrat or Republican.... The real threat among Black voters is them not voting on Election Day at all and feeling that they're not being appealed to and supported by either party," he told AFP.

Barber shops vs HBCUs

Trump may not be welcome at HBCUs but he is finding fertile turf in male-orientated circles, like the barber shop he visited last week in New York's Bronx borough. The event in the mostly Latino and Black neighborhood of Castle Hill was broadcast by right-wing TV network Fox News.

"You guys are the same as me. It's the same stuff. We were born the same way. I grew up in Queens and all of that," said the former president, who grew up in the borough's upscale Jamaica Estates community, and inherited a fortune from his father.

Strawbridge said such sporadic appeals to minority voters "come across as very opportunistic."

For Harris, the HBCU connections are especially useful in the pre-election period which coincides with campus homecomings -- a tradition in which alumni return for an autumn football game, parade and other celebrations.

The festivities are particularly pronounced at HBCUs like Howard, where Harris, who is half Black and half Indian-American, graduated in 1986.

Kalyssa Gillespie, a third-year Howard student said on a practical level Harris "doesn't really have to cater to us, because she already has our vote."

But, she said, Harris's efforts show "that she cares, that she will come back and give to her community instead of forgetting about where she came from."

As Election Day approaches, Harris has tried to spread her net further.

She chatted with popular radio host Charlamagne tha God and launched a new economic plan specifically to court African American males.

Last weekend, she visited Black churches in Georgia, including a Baptist megachurch near Atlanta.

Appealing to Black churches, HBCUs and Black sororities, which serve organizational roles in the Black community, is "crucial to a campaign that wants to get Black folks to the polls," Strawbridge said.

Confirming Harris's strong pull, visiting Howard parent Haynes said the only good things he had heard about Trump were "based off of his legacy as a businessman."

"But in those same breaths (were) the comments and the concerns of the past things that went on," including the ex-president's "behavior, stance on minorities, LGBTQ -- just all of the different demographics" he has offended.