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Getting “smoked” in November 2024
The rise of Haley to the former President is one of meeting a “real” challenge within the Grand Old Party while to Democrats it is a bigger political nuisance
Nikki Haley and Donald Trump / Instagram/LibraryofCongress
“She’s gonna get smoked… She’s not up to this”, was a remark made by the former Governor of New Jersey, Chris Christie, shortly before he packed his bags on his presidential bid. Christie was referring to Nikki Haley, the former Governor of South Carolina, who is seen as a promising candidate within the Republican pack to challenge the former President Donald Trump for the party nomination.
Others, like the Governor of Florida, Ron DeSantis, and Indian American entrepreneur Vivek Ramaswamy, are now seen as long shots and expected to fold soon.
A latest poll in New Hampshire showing Haley trailing Trump by 14 points, a substantial narrowing of the gap given that in March 2023 support for the former United Nations ambassador was only at 4 percent; now at 31 percent. And indications are that Haley will be the biggest beneficiary from Christie’s exit.
Republicans-- to a small extent, Democrats as well-- will be looking at January 15 and 23 carefully for this will be the first political show in the November 2024 elections. If the Iowa Caucus and New Hampshire primaries indicate a strong show for Haley, it is quite a different ballgame for the campaign of Trump. Currently the 45th President enjoys a commanding lead over his opponents and even talks of having a lock on November presidential poll.
It is not as if Trump will be ready to throw in the towel. But his campaign is showing signs of early jitters of Haley’s rise as evident from the Big Man starting to question whether Haley is even eligible to run for the highest office, taking a worn out page of the Barack Obama notebook—that parents were not citizens of America at the time of having their siblings. The “birther” theory has long been trashed as Obama went on to become President and serve two full terms. Haley will survive a similar campaign, if it gets any traction at all.
Iowa and New Hampshire have sent larger messages to both Republicans and Democrats, it has been pointed out. For instance three Republican candidates and six Democrats who have bagged the Iowa Caucus between 1976 and 2020 have gone on to become their party nominees; of the Democratic nominees only Jimmy Carter and Obama went on to become President; and of the Republicans only George W Bush entered the White House.
But New Hampshire has a different story: six GOPers who have won here have secured the nomination as opposed to five Democrats. Ronald Reagan, George H.W. Bush and Trump who secured the party nomination went on to the White House; and the lone Democrat who managed to win New Hampshire and get into the Oval Office was Carter.
And here is a consolation to the GOP contenders : Bill Clinton in 1992 and Joseph Biden in 2020 lost both Iowa and New Hampshire but went on to become Presidents.
The rise of Haley has different messages for the Trump and Biden campaigns. To the former President it is one of meeting a “real” challenge within the Grand Old Party that upsets the nomination process.
Further Haley has shown that she is unlike to wilt under pressure or name calling. Her challenge would be to convince party loyalists and big time donors of her capability to run and win in spite of all expected antics of the former President.
To Democrats the rise of Haley is a bigger political nuisance. The Biden campaign was perhaps quietly hoping of a re-run of 2020 on a thinking that voters would shun venom and divisiveness in the polity.
As it is the incumbent faces a huge problem within the party as substantial numbers do not wish to see him on the ballot; he trails Trump in any match-up; and he is behind Haley as well, according to different surveys. Democratic strategists would do well to pay less attention whether Haley gets “smoked” in 2024; only making sure that their candidate does not face the same music from Haley in November.
Currently Editor in Chief, Dr. Sridhar Krishnaswami was Special Correspondent of The Hindu and Press Trust of India in Washington D.C. covering North America and United Nations. He has covered the Presidential elections of 1996, 2000, 2004 and 2008.
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