The Foundation for India Studies (FIS) recently hosted a Town Hall at India House, Houston, as part of its Distinguished Lecture Series. The event, titled “Decoding India’s Election 2024,” attempted to provide attendees with an in-depth look into the complexities of India's general elections.
FIS director Hiren Sarma opened the session, welcoming the audience before introducing Krishna Vavilala, the founder chairman of FIS. Vavilala spoke briefly about the Foundation's mission and its ongoing activities.
The event featured a presentation by Shiladitya Kumar, a political science analyst and Ph.D. researcher at the University of Houston. Kumar's analysis, based on data collected during his visit to India for the Lok Sabha elections, conveyed his understanding of the election dynamics. His presentation, which included images from street rallies in West Bengal, was followed by a lively Q&A session moderated by Jay K. Aiyer, a former Political Science professor at Texas Southern University and currently the First Assistant County Attorney at Harris County.
Kumar’s presentation highlighted several issues, including the surprising failures of exit polls, the influence of foreign finance, and voter reactions to the Bharatiya Janata Party’s (BJP) performance. He noted that while the BJP, led by Prime Minister Narendra Modi, did not secure an outright majority of 272 seats, it managed to form the government with a combined total of 298 seats through alliances with the Telugu Desam Party of Andhra Pradesh and Janata Dal (Secular) of Bihar. The opposition coalition, known as the I.N.D.I.A. alliance, led by the Indian National Congress (INC), won 234 seats, but fell short of the majority.
“The significant increase in seats for the INC, from 52 in 2019 to 99 in 2024, is a testament to the resilience of India’s democracy,” Kumar stated, countering Western media portrayals of Modi’s rule as autocratic.
The role of media, particularly exit polls, faced sharp criticism during the discussion. Attendees emphasized the need for improved sampling methods, transparency, and public awareness of the limitations of such predictions, especially given their socio-economic implications, as evidenced by the stock market's volatility during the election results.
The event concluded with a live Q&A session, managed by Hiren Sarma, allowing the audience to engage directly with Kumar and Aiyer. FIS director Sudhakar Tallavajhula offered a vote of thanks, expressing gratitude to the speakers, attendees, and Desi District Indian Restaurant for providing refreshments.
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